GDL updates casualty reduction estimates

23 May 2018

Given the renewed focus on Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL), the RAC Foundation has used the latest available road safety data to update previous estimates of the potential casualty and collision reductions GDL might bring in Great Britain. ‘ The modelled impact of a range of GDL schemes. An update of the 2014 TRL report’, by RAC Foundation Data Analyst Bhavin Makwanais is now available and indicates a possible reduction of some 4000 casualties.

This provides a data update of the 2014 report by TRL ‘Graduated Driver Licensing: A regional analysis of potential casualty savings in Great Britain’.

The new analysis does not go beyond updating the figures. The RAC Foundation has not sought to explain the changes in figures though they could be related to factors such as:

• safer vehicles
• lower mileage rates amongst young drivers
• behaviour change caused by greater use of telematics insurance

Further study is required to understand the underlying trends behind this change and the RAC Foundation will continue to conduct research into the general topic of young driver safety.